Recently, the stock market travelled 533 days from the August 25, 1987 all time top to the February 8, 1989 post crash high or secondary top. This distance in days is ﬁve more than six orbits of Mercury (6 x 88 days 528 days). When I checked for this time distance in the historical records, I tound the following other examples listed in Table 1.
Now the ﬁrst thing to note is that the movements can go from high to hieh (four examples), high to low (ﬁve examples), and low to high (one example). It might be signiﬁcant that there were no examples of low to low, the traditional way that cycles are measured. It is of interest that the 1987-1989 situation resembled the 1929-1931 situation, although February 24, 1931 was not the post crash high. Nevertheless, in both instances, a prominent top occurred 533-539 days after the speculative top.
Now, another way to measure time distances is to combine Fibonacci numhers of weeks, such as 21 weeks + 55 weeks = 76 weeks = 532 days. The average time distance, 534 days, is closer to 76 weeks than it is to the six orbits of Mercury but this does not prove that Mercury is not involved. A third way to measure time is as follows: 900 days minus a year + 535 days. The three theoretical models together thus gives a time distance of 528-535 days, in fairly good agreement with the actual data of 525-540 days. Note that these time distances are always less than 18 months. Now, another time distance that I noted in the stock market is 11 orbits of Mercury or 968 days.
Again, the time distance can be expressed in a Fibonacci number of weeks, such as two years + 34 weeks, which is 968.5 days. Another way to describe this time distance is one year and 600 days + 965 days. Additionally, 968 is the same as two and one half years + 55 days. Note that the II orbit lengths are more normally distributed in terms of the iiature of the turning points, all four types of movements are found.
Now the question occurs, were any of the six orbit movements followed by 11 orbit movements, or vice versa? The August 8, 1896 to April 3, 1899 II orbit rally was followed by the April 3, 1899 to September 24, 1900 six orbit decline. The March 31, 1938 to September 13, 1939 six orbit rally was followed by the September 13, 1939 to April 28, 1942 Il orbit decline. Additionally, there was a six orbit decline, November 9, 1940 to April 28, 1942 contained within the larger 11 orbit decline, September 13, 1939 to April 28, 1942. The September 15, 1953 to May 9, 1956 11 orbit rally was followed by the May 9, 1956 to October 22. 1957 six orbit decline. The December 2, 1968 to May 26. 1970 six orbit decline was followed by the May 26, 1970 to January 11, 1973 11 orbit rally. An 11 orbit decline, July 15, 1975 to March 1, 1978, and a six orbit decline, September 22, 1976 to March 1, 1978, conﬂowed to March 1, 1978.
Now, 6-11-17 is not a Eibonacci sequence. However, it is a variation on the more acceptable sequences: 6-10-16. 6-12-18, and 6 1/2, 10 1/2, 17. It is fairly close to the last sequence which is half of the well known 13-21-34 sequence, and intermediate between the ﬁrst two sequences. If one accepts all of these sequences as occurring in nature then one can see that it is foolhardy to expect exact relationships and miss out on the realities. For example, the range in fraction relative to the theoretical 0.618 is 0.5 to 0.667. It is the 1-2-3 sequence which is the furthest from the theoretical. The sum of six orbits. II orbits and 17 orbits is 1496 days which can also be viewed as 1500 days. It is also 2 years + 21 weeks + 34 weeks + 55 weeks.
This article should not be construed as indicating that other integral numbers of orbits of Mercury do not occur in the stock and commodity markets.
- Six Orbits of Mercury, a Common Time Distance in the Stock Market By Alan Richter