Trading With The Odds: Using the Power of Statistics to Profit in the Futures Market
$15.30
| Author(s) | |
|---|---|
| Product Type |
Ebook |
| Format |
|
| Skill Level |
Intermediate to Advanced |
| Pages |
162 |
| Publication Year |
1996 |
| Delivery |
Instant Download |
“Trading With the Odds” by Cynthia A. Kase is a rigorous, statistically grounded guide to futures trading that replaces prediction and opinion with probability, data, and measurable expectancy. Rather than relying on traditional chart patterns or discretionary signals, Kase presents a framework built on statistical distributions, risk asymmetry, and objective trade evaluation.
The core philosophy of the book is that profitable trading emerges from understanding odds, not forecasts. Kase demonstrates how markets exhibit repeatable statistical behaviors and how traders can exploit these behaviors through disciplined position sizing, predefined risk limits, and probability-based trade selection. The focus is on futures markets, where leverage magnifies both opportunity and error, making statistical discipline essential.
A defining feature of this work is its emphasis on risk-first thinking. Kase shows how to quantify downside exposure before entering a trade and how to evaluate strategies based on long-term expectancy rather than short-term outcomes. Concepts such as variance, drawdowns, and distribution of returns are treated as central elements of system design, not afterthoughts.
This book is not a mechanical trading system, nor is it a beginner’s tutorial. It is a professional-grade analytical manual for traders who want to replace intuition and hope with measurable edge and statistical confidence. For futures traders committed to disciplined, probability-driven execution, “Trading With the Odds” provides a durable intellectual foundation.
✅ What You’ll Learn:
- How to apply statistical thinking to futures market trading.
- Why probability and expectancy matter more than win rate.
- How to evaluate trades and strategies using return distributions.
- Methods for defining risk before entry and controlling drawdowns.
- How leverage interacts with probability and variance in futures markets.
- Why many discretionary strategies fail statistically.
- How to design trading decisions based on odds rather than prediction.
- The importance of long-term statistical consistency over short-term results.
💡 Key Benefits:
- Replaces subjective trading decisions with objective probability analysis.
- Strengthens risk management through statistical discipline.
- Improves long-term consistency by focusing on expectancy.
- Helps traders survive and thrive in leveraged futures markets.
- Encourages professional-level thinking instead of reactive trading.
👤 Who This Book Is For:
- Intermediate and advanced futures traders seeking a quantitative edge.
- Traders interested in probability, statistics, and risk-based execution.
- Systematic and semi-systematic traders refining their decision framework.
- Market participants frustrated by inconsistent discretionary results.
- Professionals who want to trade based on odds, not opinions.
📚 Table of Contents:
- Increasing the Probability of Success with Science and Statistics
- The True Nature of the Market
- Developing a Strategy with Accurate Forecasting
- Improving the Probability of Success with Time Diversification
- Increasing the Probability of Catching Market Turns
- Using Statistics to find Optimal Stop: Kase’s Adaptive Dev-Stop
- Walking Through Trade
- Freedom from Time and Space with Universal Bars
Trading With The Odds: Using the Power of Statistics to Profit in the Futures Market By Cynthia A. Kase
13 reviews for Trading With The Odds: Using the Power of Statistics to Profit in the Futures Market
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Opal Goodwin (verified owner) –
Cynthia Kase thinks about trading in a different way from most people. She’s terrific but you need both brains and some conceptual understanding of statistics to “get” this book.
Just to take an example, I have never heard anyone else explain that risk is proportional to the square root of time (or tick) interval: lower your time span, lower your risk. If that kind of thinking excites you, you’re at the right place.
Douglas Weeks (verified owner) –
I sensed that she has tremendous amount of trading experience. Simply put, she knows what she is talking about. Along with, not in particular order, Constance Brown, Linda Bradford Raschke, and Robin Mesch, Cynthia Kase once again proves that lady traders are as good as,if not better than, gentlemen traders. Job well done, Ms. Kase.
Karen Boyle (verified owner) –
The book might contain many good ideas. But there is no way to verify these ideas with back testing without the formulas of the Kase specific indicators. Kase lists the calculation of the traditional stochastic indicator, which is implemented in almost every charting package. But she doesn’t say how the kase peak oscillator is calculated!!
2 stars for the good ideas including the Elliott forcasting rules
Eliezer Medrano (verified owner) –
I was really disappointed in this book. As I was reading it I kept asking myself when is she going to explain how to calculate the indicators. And there you have it. She doesn’t. You have to buy them. It’s pretty clever really. Write up some proprietary software/indicators, and then write a book showing how well they work with cherry-picked examples. The book provides the advertising for the real product.
Overall there are some interesting ideas in this book but unless you purchase the indicators you’re not going to be able to use them.
Halle Huerta (verified owner) –
It’s extremely unfortunate that the negative comments are likely to detract from the value of the book. To be upfront, the book doesn’t layout an explicit step-by-step “how to” calculate the proprietary indicators provided in this book. However, that doesn’t mean the information is NOT there or could not be derived from the information provided. Those that complain this is simply “marketing” hype for her company – again, this does not mean that the information provided is not of value to a trader. And what’s wrong with profiting from one’s ideas – give me a break. The information is there is you want to invest the time and energy to understand what she’s talking about.
Those that wish to complain about this book appear to have a: lack of basic familiarity in elementary statistics and probability, b: lack the desire to do some homework on their own and c: simply want to “plug and chug” the latest and greatest “holy grail” formula for instant wealth. I can promise you this book is not for anyone with this perspective.
Any one willing to invest the time and energy to gain a better understanding of what the text of this book presents will benefit substantially. Ms. Kase has an engineer’s talent to say much in the fewest words possible. Skip over a sentence or two, or breeze through some text in the hopes of getting to the hidden formula, you can be assured you will miss something significant or lose the main point presented.
For those out there looking for the next great “holy grail” plug-and-chug wealth beyond your dreams formula – I assure you will be disappointed with this book. However, if you are interested in pushing your brain cells a bit and are willing to invest some sweat to learn something new, then you’ll benefit from the book.
Khaleesi Gaines (verified owner) –
I read “Trading with the Odds” many years ago, and it revolutionized my idea of trading. I’ve worked with many
of the traditional indicators, and enjoyed a certain degree of trading success. Today, however, my current trading system is based on Cynthia’s work
with statistical based trading. Cynthia Kase is brilliant at using statistics to trade with the odds.
This book is not for the novice trader. But, the advanced and intermediate trader will have an eye opening experience.
Artemis Rowland (verified owner) –
Fairly standard book in the trading literature following the following script:
1) Create a bit of magic by pretending to teach a very specific method
2) Throw in some basic, rudementary statistics and a few anecdotes
3) Plenty of charts to show a few excellent paper trades
4) Try to sell your own expensive trading course…
I’m a trading book junkie and this belongs with the crowd of poorly implemented concepts and ideas.
Jaden Stephenson (verified owner) –
I got this book and I still feel cheated. I’ve read scores of trading books and I honestly couldn’t get through this one.It was torture from the start.
Kaison Ibarra (verified owner) –
Quite a disappointment. I read this book because of Kase her background in mathematics and because she was trader herself. This book has some good ideas but the material on her indicators is very limited + I didn’t see any promising backtests (just some charts). On top of that the explanations on the indicators are not clear at all (like a typical advertisement folder for a black box system).
Also her idea on the deviation stop was not that clear or elaborated at all. It sounds like a good idea, sure, but that’s also where it stops. All in all I found this book very overrated, certainly for someone with a scientific background. If you then consider the price this book is being sold at …
Madilynn Padilla (verified owner) –
Cynthia Kase’s methodology is not for the faint of heart. If you want a quick read as to how to make money in any liquid trading market then I would suggest you not read this book. On the other hand, if you are a professional trader or aspire to understand the methods many professionals use day in and day out to earn a living from the markets then its a great book which belongs in your trading library. Successful trading is a “thinking person’s game”. For most people (myself included) it took many rereads to grasp the concepts within the book. I have had this book in my library for over 14 years and continue to reference it. The material is timeless and I have made many dollars in many markets from the methods described in this book.
Robin Reyna (verified owner) –
This book was a major disappointment. Her proprietary indicators remain so, with descriptions so vague that I could not begin to code and test them myself. Without this, there is really zero point to the book. Additionally, she integrates Elliott Wave, Fibonacci, Candlestick Patterns, and her proprietary indicators into her trading method. While I have no reason to doubt that she indeed does this (and has done it with good results), her skimpy walk-through of two different sets of trades isn’t remotely enough to help us do the same. Such a “let’s see it all in action” section should have been at least three times longer.
Truett Dickerson (verified owner) –
I personally found the application and beliefs of the DevStop to be most useful.
I read this book on recommendation of Dr Van Tharp in his Peak Performance Home Study course, and he also mentions it in his book Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom.
Luella Sanford (verified owner) –
Not good