Seasonality: Systems, Strategies, and Signals


  • Format: PDF
  • Pages: 229
  • Published Date: 1998


In Seasonality: Systems, Strategies, and Signals, Bernstein provides a thorough, real-world understanding of seasonal timing concepts and techniques. Along with results of his own extensive research, he integrates the work of numerous market analysts, such as W. D. Gann, Art Merrill, Burton Pugh, Samuel Benner, and Yale Hirsch, among others, to create a pragmatic and highly functional analytical framework. With his accessible, comprehensive coverage of significant concepts such as seasonal spread relationships, key dates, and cash tendencies, you’ll be able to discern seasonal patterns in monthly and daily cash and futures data. Once the basics are firmly in place, Bernstein leads you step by step through the essential process of formulating a seasonal trading program that incorporates important timing strategies and risk management tools.


Seasonality may not be the Holy Grail of futures trading; nevertheless, the use of seasonal concepts and methods in futures trading can do the following:

  • Lead to objective decisions based on a logical and operational methodology.
  • Facilitate the development of a solid, analytical decision-making framework.
  • Provide a backdrop of probable market trends in most time frames and in most markets.
  • Improve your odds of success as a trader by focusing on historically valid patterns and methodologies.
  • Assist in the selection of historically valid seasonal spread trends.
  • Provide historically valid input for use as an adjunct to other analytical methods and timing indicators.

That is what the use of seasonal concepts in futures trading can do for you. Here is what the use of seasonal concepts cannot do for you:

  • Be the ultimate, fail-safe method to achieving vast wealth.
  • Give you perfect market timing.
  • Be correct all the time.
  • Eliminate the risk of futures trading.
  • Give you deep insights as to the meaning of market trends or their causes.

The following are my primary goals in publishing this book:

  • To increase public awareness o f seasonality. This is my most ambitious goal. For too many years, too few traders have been aware of how reliable seasonals have been in virtually all markets.
  • To provide a logical and effective trading framework for the use of seasonals. I provide objective and logical seasonal methods that range from market analysis to precise seasonal trade implementation
    complete with risk management.
  • To emphasize the validity of seasonality as a long-term as well as a short-term method. The fact that seasonality exists in all time frames is a strong testimonial to its validity as an underlying fact of market life. This book provides numerous examples of seasonality in different time frames and suggests various ways to use the seasonal time frames.
  • To balance facts and underlying causes. Traders can profit in several ways by using technical market methods. They can impose their own framework on the markets, trading within the dictates of their parameters, or they can attempt to trade within parameters that are a function of underlying market behavior.


  • Seasonality, Price History and Humankind.
  • An Overview of Seasonal Research.
  • Seasonal Price Patterns in Cash Market Data.
  • Seasonal Price Patterns in Weekly Futures Market Data.
  • Seasonal Spread Relationships.
  • Daily Seasonal Price Tendencies.
  • Critical Seasonal Month Concept.
  • Key Date Seasonals.
  • An Overview of Seasonal Trading Systems, Methods, and Concepts.
  • Combining Seasonality with Timing.
  • Conclusions and Suggestions for Further Research.