Long-Run Growth Forecasting
$28.01
| Author(s) | |
|---|---|
| Pages |
192 |
| Format |
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| Published Date |
2008 |
Long-Run Growth Forecastingis about forecasting long-run GDP growth both per capita and in total. It will derive forecasts for average annual GDP growth for the period 2006 to 2020 for 40 economies around the world based on models with annual frequencies using the most current data available. The forecast horizon of 2020 is motivated by the average investment period of large projects initiated by companies or governments.
Forecasts are usually made to help and guide decision making. Good forecasts are preconditions for good, informed decisions. These decisions may vary from a financial market bet on interest rate changes to the policy decision on how to structure a country’s pension system.
Ideally, decision-makers should be as well prepared as possible for the future, which would allow them to act appropriately. To detect challenges and opportunities in a timely manner decision-makers require a good forecasting framework. Given the role governments, companies and individuals play, knowledge about the drivers and linkages that determine the future will allow these players to actually shape the future themselves.
Contents:
- The importance of long-run growth analysis
- Assessment of growth theories
- The dependent variable: GDP growth
- Labor input
- Physical capital
- Human capital
- Openness
- Spatial linkages
- Other determinants of GDP
- The evolution of growth empirics
- Estimation results
- Forecast competitions and 2006-2020 forecasts
- Conclusion and outlook
Long-Run Growth Forecasting By Stefan Bergheim pdf
2 reviews for Long-Run Growth Forecasting
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Josie Clarke (verified owner) –
The whole book undoubtedly benefits from Bergheim’s experience as both an analyst and researcher. his study will prove a veritable treasure especially for young researchers looking for current research themes. Stefan Bergheim has managed to combine a detailed empirical discussion with the great debates about the pillars of our material well-being.
Well done.
Scott Aguilar (verified owner) –
Long-term growth forecasts are a bit like wrong weather forecasts. You are always wiser afterwards. Because even institutions such as the International Monetary Fund or the World Bank are still struggling with large discrepancies in their forecasting, Stefan Bergheim took another investigating look at the most widely used forecast models. His knowledgeable and very readable tour d’horizon of recent research on economic growth culminates in the presentation of his own model – a mix of the best from all economic worlds. The whole book undoubtedly benefits from Bergheim’s experience as both an analyst and researcher. He consequently follows his credo that economic research should by no means be treated as a solely retrospective matter, but instead as a science that bears reliable information for future developments. In line with this refreshingly undogmatic perspective he repeatedly pays reference to the limits of empirical research on economic growth. To this end, his study will prove a veritable treasure especially for young researchers looking for current research themes. What is the impact of R&D spending or the quality of political institutions on the long-term economic growth of a country? These and other questions highlight the crucial nature and timeless of future research on long-term economic growth. Stefan Bergheim has managed to combine a detailed empirical discussion with the great debates about the pillars of our material well-being. By doing so he followed a principle that he always kept in mind when developing his own economic forecast model: Keep it simple sophistically (KISS). Well done.