Long-Run Growth Forecastingis about forecasting long-run GDP growth both per capita and in total. It will derive forecasts for average annual GDP growth for the period 2006 to 2020 for 40 economies around the world based on models with annual frequencies using the most current data available. The forecast horizon of 2020 is motivated by the average investment period of large projects initiated by companies or governments.
Forecasts are usually made to help and guide decision making. Good forecasts are preconditions for good, informed decisions. These decisions may vary from a financial market bet on interest rate changes to the policy decision on how to structure a country’s pension system.
Ideally, decision-makers should be as well prepared as possible for the future, which would allow them to act appropriately. To detect challenges and opportunities in a timely manner decision-makers require a good forecasting framework. Given the role governments, companies and individuals play, knowledge about the drivers and linkages that determine the future will allow these players to actually shape the future themselves.
- The importance of long-run growth analysis
- Assessment of growth theories
- The dependent variable: GDP growth
- Labor input
- Physical capital
- Human capital
- Spatial linkages
- Other determinants of GDP
- The evolution of growth empirics
- Estimation results
- Forecast competitions and 2006-2020 forecasts
- Conclusion and outlook
Long-Run Growth Forecasting By Stefan Bergheim pdf