Damodaran on Valuation: Security Analysis for Investment and Corporate Finance

In order to be a successful CEO, corporate strategist, or analyst, understanding the valuation process is a necessity. The second edition of Damodaran on Valuation stands out as the most reliable book for answering many of today’s critical valuation questions. Completely revised and updated, this edition is the ideal book on valuation for CEOs and corporate strategists. You’ll gain an understanding of the vitality of today’s valuation models and develop the acumen needed for the most complex and subtle valuation scenarios you will face.

Introduction:

Knowing what an asset is worth and what determines that value is a prerequisite for intelligent decision making—in choosing investments for a portfolio, in deciding on the appropriate price to pay or receive in a takeover, and in making investment, financing, and dividend choices when running a business. The premise of this book is that we can make reasonable estimates of value for most assets, and that the same fundamental principles determine the values of all types of assets, real as well as financial.

Some assets are easier to value than others, the details of valuation vary from asset to asset, and the uncertainty associated with value estimates is different for different assets, but the core principles remain the same. This chapter lays out some general insights about the valuation process and outlines the role that valuation plays in portfolio management, in acquisition analysis, and in corporate finance. It also examines the three basic approaches that can be used to value an asset.

A postulate of sound investing is that an investor does not pay more for an asset than it is worth. This statement may seem logical and obvious, but it is forgotten and rediscovered at some time in every generation and in every market. There are those who are disingenuous enough to argue that value is in the eyes of the beholder, and that any price can be justified if there are other investors willing to pay that price. That is patently absurd.

Perceptions may be all that matter when the asset is a painting or a sculpture, but we do not and should not buy most assets for aesthetic or emotional reasons; we buy financial assets for the cash flows we expect to receive from them. Consequently, perceptions of value have to be backed up by reality, which implies that the price we pay for any asset should reflect the cash flows it is expected to generate. The models of valuation described in this book attempt to relate value to the level of, uncertainty about, and expected growth in these cash flows.

There are many aspects of valuation where we can agree to disagree, including estimates of true value and how long it will take for prices to adjust to that true value. But there is one point on which there can be no disagreement. Asset prices cannot be justified by merely using the argument that there will be other investors around who will pay a higher price in the future. That is the equivalent of playing a very expensive game of musical chairs, where every investor has to answer the question “Where will I be when the music stops?” before playing. The problem with investing with the expectation that when the time comes there will be a bigger fool around to whom to sell an asset is that you might end up being the biggest fool of all.

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