All about Market Timing: The Easy Way to Get Started

From the first page, the information is flowing, it is writing in an easy to understand language, that any layman can appreciate and yet it is insightful and jam-packed with details.
Finely the proof is in, market-timing strategy have consistently beaten buy and hold strategy hands down.

Les Masonson shares many ideas using well respected indicators. The book is a great start for anybody looking for timing ideas. His chapter on missing the best and worst market returns days is a must read for buy and hold investors.

I have been investing since the mid 60’s and the philosophy I follow, spelled out by all the stock mavens, is to buy “quality” and “hold”. Masonson’s book points out the folly of this approach. He makes a convincing case that in spite of all the wisdom that I have absorbed over 40 years, that “it ain’t so”. I will need to spend more time digesting his simple marketing timing strategies. In the future, I expect to be a smarter investor and not sit tight when the market is collapsing. Thanks for opening my eyes to the real world of investing. This book is well written, has tons of interesting facts, and lays bare the critical importance of cutting losses short and investing with the odds in your favor.

AFTER ALL TIMING IS WHAT REALLY MATTERS, IF YOU KNOW WHEN TO GET IN AND TO GET OUT YOU CAN MAKE MONEY IN ANY MARKET.

THIS BOOK TEACH YOU NOT ONLY WHY BUT HOW TO DO IT. I RECOMENT IT TO EVERYBODY THAT WANTS TO UNDERSTAND THE TRUE MARKET MOVEMENTS , HOW TO READ THE MARKET AND STAY OUT OF THE NOISE.

I have been looking for a book like this all my life, something that demonstrates different investment strategies including backtests with proven success. I have always been afraid of investing fearing that I was getting in at a market top. this book shows how to make money in up or down markets. I had contacted the author via email regarding updates on some previous backtesting and we have actually been corresponding ! this book is very simply written and is for every type of investor. I hope he plans to write a follow up !

Author Leslie Masonson has written a financial book on a series of relatively simple, yet highly effective technical timing techniques. His presentation of subject matter is logically organized and concise, which makes reading the material enjoyable. He makes an effective case against the “random walk” theory without spending half the book on it. Instead, he reviews specific trading techniques in detail. Yet you do not need a mathematics degree in order to implement them. The most valuable part of the book is the detailed list of market-timing resources, which include newsletters, advisors, web sites, software, etc. I have personally dealt with some of these individuals, and find his comments about them to be fair and insightful.

I have been trading stocks for about 17 years now and have read LOTS of books on the subject. Mr. Masonson does an outstanding job of laying out everything an investor needs to know regarding market timing. As he mentions in his Introduction, the beginner should begin with Chapter 1 and read the book through in its entirety, but the experienced investor can begin with Chapter 7. He provides an excellent balance of well documented strategies but without getting bogged down in all of the tedious details–he provides the sources for further study if you so desire.

Part 3 of this book is Market-Timing Resources. In it Mr. Masonson provides most every legitimate source for newsletters, websites, advisors and software available. This section is excellent and very complete. It is not just a listing of these resources, but he also includes lots of information about what they include, what niches they serve and the like.

The only other book that I’d read regarding market timing is The Right Stock at the Right Time by Larry Williams. Sure, you could read 20 more books on market timing and in doing so gain an additional 4-5% of actual useful information, but why bother? Everything you really need is included in these two excellent books, both of which are written by men who actually spend the bulk of their time putting their money where their mouth is… and doing so very successfully!

I’ve tried duplicating the NASDAQ Composite results for both the 25-WMA strategy and the 20-DMA strategy by backtesting using Wealth-Lab Pro. I’ve found that both strategies do not beat buy and hold in my own backtesting with regard to net profits, and are in no way anywhere nearly as profitable as reported in the book.

I believe this is due to the author not factoring in the commission. You would be surprised how a so-called “discount” commission, such as a $7.95 per trade flat-rate, can cause the results over time to be worse (less profitable) than buy and hold especially for strategies that would result in hundreds of trades over time. The commission really affects the results more that one would think, because the compounding of profits, over time, is greatly reduced by the effects of commission. (even “discount” commission adds up over time and reduces the effects of compounding.) Further, the slippage you would encounter in real life would make the results even worse. My tests were with a 100K initial account size with 7.95 per trade flat rate.

I would give the book a higher rating if some of the backtested results on strategies involving moving averages weren’t too good to be true. Slippage and commission (even for “discount” brokers) would eat you alive.

Further, results on indices themselves tend to be “magical” in my opinion. Lets face it…you can’t actually trade an index itself. You could trade an ETF that mimicks and index, but the ETF has an expense ratio associated with it which affects net profit over time, and the ETF, when traded, is subject to slippage compared to the index.

I still think it is likely one could come up with a simple system using moving averages to reduce drawdowns compared to buy and hold, even when factoring in slippage and commission. Such a system would need to be traded on a large enough time framce which would reduce the number of round trips and lesson the effects of commission and slippage. However, in my opinion, if you trade a simple system utilizing, say, a single moving average or, say, a dual moving average crossover, the odds would NOT favor beating buy and hold in the long run. You might reduce drawdowns and risk, compared to buy and hold, which is a desirable goal, but beating buy and hold in terms of profit over the long run would be unlikely.

I have no hesitation to recommend this to all beginnners who dont have the slightest idea of moving averages, seasonality effect, presidential election year effect and so on. It’s an easy read, for sure, and I appreciate much the intelligent pick of quotes in the beginning of each chapter. However, I am obliged to comment that the author had focused so well to make it fit for the newbies that many essential elements are missed. For those who commit to profit in this extremely unforgiving arena, “High Probability Trading by Marcel Link” would be a far better choice. In case historical reference on various timing effects is what you need, ” The Right Stock at the Right Time: Prospering in the Coming Good Years by Larry Williams” will suit you well.

A lot of wasted pages, and generic stuff written about in other trading books. The title gives impression that there is something special written.

As a financial planner one of the most difficult concepts to get across to clients is that “buy and hold” strategies are more risky than timing strategies. Les Masonson in the introduction and three chapters presents a convincing argument that will show you that buying and putting away mutual funds is good only for the portfolio managers running the funds. Why stand in the way of a freight train as the market crashes for three years in a row? While the first part of the book alone is worth the price, the rest of it presents simple and carefully worked techniques that you can use to protect yourself from crashes and take advantage of the big rallies that separate them. It takes just minutes from time to time during the year to employ these techniques. I urge you to get the book and read it.