Investment Megatrends

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PDF

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274

Published Date

2006

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Investment Megatrends concludes with a detailed discussion of how you can develop an Investment Megatrend Portfolio over the next ten years. Filled with in-depth insight and expert advice, Investment Megatrends can help serious investors profit today and tomorrow from some of the most important global demographic shifts of our lifetime.

Megatrends are large social, economic, or political changes that are slow to form however, once in place, their influence can last decades. Demographics are a type of megatrend, and even though these trends are somewhat easy to spot, few, if any, investors focus enough on demographic trends as they make their investment decisions. During his investment career, Dr. Bob Froehlich has had the opportunity to travel the globe. He has witnessed firsthand the evolving demographic changes taking place around the world. These unique demographic trends can create investment opportunities, if you understand the link between demographics and investments.

Author’s Note:

Chapter 1 begins by explaining and exploring the dramatic power and influence of demographic trends. It provides you with a new frame of reference spelling out exactly what to look for in demographics and, equally important, it tells you how to do it. This chapter becomes your road map pointing out the pitfalls and opportunities of demographic data, think of it as the who, what, when, where, and why of demographics.

Chapter 2 identifies the first of the four global shifts called “The Ponce de León Effect,” focusing on the American baby boomer. This shift is named after the Spanish explorer Ponce de León who went in search of the fountain of youth. On April 2, 1513, he landed in St. Augustine, Florida, and took possession of the “New World” in the name of the king of Spain. He never found the fountain of youth but now almost 500 years later, the baby boomers have. The U.S. baby-boomer generation is more active and healthier than any previous generation in American history. Now with the mapping of DNA, we are able to unlock all of the medical and health mysteries that have baffled us for centuries. When you combine all of the advances of the biotech industry along with the advanced research that unlocking DNA provides us and then add 76 million baby boomers eager to buy whatever is developed to make them healthier, wealthier, and (presumably) wiser, it is easy to see why the Ponce de León Effect is one of the four great demographic shifts in the world today.

In Chapter 3, I explore the shift called “The Walls Keep Tumbling Down.” It is focused on the new wave of Eastern European workers. When the Berlin Wall finally came crashing down, it was not simply a reunification of Western and Eastern Germany, but rather it set the stage for a dramatic shift in Europe as the remaining communist countries began the march from communism toward capitalism. Today the walls continue to tumble down. The creation of the European Monetary Union currently links 25 countries throughout Europe. There now is an unprecedented free flow of capital and, more important, a free flow of labor. This unleashing of low-cost labor in Eastern European countries is changing the labor landscape, not just in Europe, but it has implications all around the world as well.

Chapter 4 identifies global shift three as “The Rising Sun Is Clearly Setting” by focusing on the dramatic aging population of Japan. Nowhere around the globe is there a more pronounced boom of elders than in the land of the rising sun, Japan. It is the culmination of the aftershocks of World War II and what that shock did to slow birth rates combined with a stringent immigration policy, which together make these elder Japanese not only the most dominant demographic force in Japan, but one of the great demographic shifts in the entire world.

Chapter 5 focuses on the Chinese consumer generation with a shift called “Napoleon Was Right.” Over 200 years ago, Napoleon astutely predicted when China awakes it will shake the world. He was right. China has awoken and it’s shaking the world from its rafters. Over the next decade, Chinese consumers will have displaced U.S. consumers as the single most important driving force in the entire global economy. Currently, only four million Chinese consumers earn more than $10,000 per year. Over the next decade, that number will explode to over 150 million Chinese consumers earning over $10,000 per year. That will represent the largest consumption bubble of all time. Napoleon was right; this demographic shift is already changing the world.

Investment Megatrends concludes with Chapter 6, which shows you “How to Develop an Investment Megatrends Portfolio” for the next 10 years. It reexamines each of these four global demographic shifts and connects the dots to opportunities these shifts are creating in different sectors and regions of the world. It then identifies the five companies best positioned to benefit from each shift. This chapter will get you on your way to not just understanding the four greatest global demographic shifts in the world today, but how to use them to get rich as well.

Make sure you look at Appendix 1, “Demographic Web Sites.” I have categorized the best demographic web sites by subject matter and I have even rated them for you so that you know which ones are best. Appendix 2 is a country-by-country ranking of all 25 members of the European Union based on key demographic indicators. This will serve as a nice reference snapshot. Also make sure you take a look at Appendix 3, which is a glossary and maybe one of the book’s unique features called BobSpeak. Instead of your boring traditional glossary of investment and demographic terms, “BobSpeak” includes my opinion regarding the importance, the significance, and relevance of those terms. Think of it as the first opinionated glossary of investment and demographic terms.

Andfinally, don’t forget to look at Appendix 4, “About R.I.S.E.” (Redefining Investment Strategy Education). I am donating the financial proceeds of this book to R.I.S.E. R.I.S.E. has become the largest global student investment forum anywhere in the world and is held annually on the campus of the University of Dayton.

Contents:

  • UNDERSTANDING THE POWER OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS
  • GLOBAL SHIFT 1: THE PONCE DE LEÓN EFFECT (THE AMERICAN BABY BOOMERS)
  • GLOBAL SHIFT 2: THE WALLS KEEP TUMBLING DOWN (EASTERN EUROPEAN WORKERS)
  • GLOBAL SHIFT 3: THE RISING SUN IS CLEARLY SETTING (THE AGING JAPANESE POPULATION)
  • GLOBAL SHIFT 4: NAPOLEON WAS RIGHT (THE CHINESE CONSUMER GENERATION)
  • HOW TO DEVELOP AN INVESTMENT MEGATRENDS PORTFOLIO
Investment Megatrends By Bob Froehlich pdf
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  1. Gordon Chase (verified owner)

    Bob speaks to our greater needs, not just our greater financial interests. It’s what sets him apart. He’s about a lot more than money, because with that fine mind beats an even finer heart.

  2. Raina Vo (verified owner)

    Good book detailing international trends that influence the economy and how (births, deaths etc)….lots on useful information for the investment savvy.

  3. Blaise Ellison (verified owner)

    buying this book is bad investment, demorgrapics says people are growing old, so buy cannon because the old people will buy its cameras to take photos of their grandchildren, what kind of logic is that? is it a safer bet to buy companies making adult diapers?

  4. Angie Beard (verified owner)

    Bob Froehlich is a frequent guest on television shows and, indeed, the level of investment analysis he presents in this book is perfect for that medium. He offers basic information about demographic science; he accompanies this discussion with references to history and economics that even the most committed couch potato will find comfortably familiar and he seasons his fact salad with catchy soundbites and slogans. Then he offers specific stock-purchase recommendations. Froehlich’s train of thought is not always clear, and his recommendations sometimes seem off base or even a bit risky, but we appreciate the accessibility of his analysis and his application of demographic theory. Examples and an appendix listing Web sites increase the book’s usefulness. If you’re new to investing, start your library with this introduction – but make sure to supplement it with other books for more advanced investors.

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