The Socionomic Theory of Finance
$29.15
| Author(s) | |
|---|---|
| Format |
|
| Pages |
643 |
| Published Date |
2018 |
The Socionomic Theory of Finance is a 13-year-long effort by Robert Prechter. It includes supporting s from twelve other scholars, writers, researchers and analysts. In contrast to the dismal science of economics, Prechter’s theory is original, exciting and intellectually fulfilling. Every rebuts conventions and offers ground-breaking insights in presenting a cohesive model with real-world application. The book draws a crucial distinction between finance and economics and ties both fields to human social behavior. Top reviewers from multiple disciplines have offered acclaim.
Author’s Note:
The socionomic theory of finance (STF) is a subset of the larger field of socionomics. Two of my previous books concentrated on socionomic theory overall, whereas this book focuses mainly on STF. To put this volume in perspective: It is not just another book challenging conventional economic theory on the subjects of finance and macroeconomics; it is a book about what should replace it. It is not another book updating the age-old observation that investors are emotional; it is a book about the origin of those emotions. It is not another book about occasional investor irrationality; it is a book about contexts accommodating rational or impulsive thought.
It is not another technical analysis book about interpreting financial market sentiment; it is a book about why there is even such a thing as financial market sentiment. It is not another book about market psychology; it is a book about psychology’s role in financial and social causality. It is not a how-to book about the craft of social futurism; it is a book about the primary cause of the social future.
Part I of this book dispenses with the ideas of exogenous cause and rational reaction in financial pricing. Parts II through V introduce socionomic theory and explain the fundamentals of STF. Parts VI through VIII expand the scope of the discussion. When pertinent, headers provide original composition dates for contributors’ chapters previously published elsewhere. I have edited them to fit smoothly into this book.
Contents:
- The Myth of Shocks
- The Conventional Error of Exogenous Cause and Rational Reaction in Finance
- Central-Bank Policy Does Not Control Interest Rates; It’s the Other Way Around
- Stocks’ Rise After the Charlie Hebdo Attack Was Anything But a “Rational Reaction”
- Time for a New Model
- The Structure of Socionomic Theory
- Sociometers and Their Application
- Socionomics and the Elliott Wave Model Provide a Framework for Projecting the Lag Time of News
- Did U C New Studies? Tweets N Blogs Predict Equity Prices
- From Observation to Prediction
- Socionomics Satisfies the Criteria of Falsifiability and Predictability
- The Financial/Economic Dichotomy
- Fundamentals of STF, in Contrast to Those of Economics
- The Economic-Socionomic Spectrum of Markets
- The Financial/Economic Dichotomy in Social Behavioral Dynamics: The Socionomic Perspective
- Unconscious Herding Behavior as the Psychological Basis of Financial Market Trends and Patterns
- Financial Herding is Universal and Fractal
- The Awesome Power of Exogenous-Cause Mythology and Consensus Thinking to Hijack Investors’ Minds
- On Mood, Herding and Alternative Hypotheses
- Are Crowds Really Wise? Study Confirms that Herding Undermines the Wisdom-of-Crowds Effect
- Linear Extrapolation vs. Fractal Extrapolation
- Elliott Waves vs. Supply and Demand: The Oil Market
- Popular Bubble Theories vs. the Elliott Wave Model
- Contrasting STF with Certain Tenets of the Austrian School
- Contrasting STF with Keynesian and Monetarist Technocratic
- Social Mood Impels Feelings of Certainty and Uncertainty
- Social Mood Influences Aggregate Opinions about Inflation and Deflation Irrespective of Pertinent Data
- Social Mood Governs the Tone of Federal Reserve Board
- Skepticism about “Potent Directors” Can Set You Apart from the Crowd
- Social Mood and Financial Economics
- The Metatheoretical Foundation of Socionomics
- Socionomics: A New Metatheoretically Consistent Social Science Paradigm
- Herding: An Interdisciplinary Integrative Review from a Socionomic Perspective
- A Literature Review of Social Mood
- The Socionomic Theory of Finance and the Institution of Social Mood: Pareto and the Sociology of Instinct and Rationalization
- Methodological Individualism vs. Methodological Holism and Their Resolution in Socionomic Theory
- Socionoimcs Theorist Wayne D. Parker, PhD, Dies at 61
- Brain Teaser: Discounting Theory vs. Socionomic Theory
- Using Socionomics To Predict Trends in the Popularity of Financial Theories
- Setting the Record Straight about Socionomics
- A Well-Known Scholar Embraces Socionomics
- Two Popular Science Magazines Review the Socionomic Hypothesis
- An Interview with Robert Prechter on the Origin and Future of Socionomics
The Socionomic Theory of Finance By Robert R. Prechter pdf
28 reviews for The Socionomic Theory of Finance
Clear filtersOnly logged in customers who have purchased this product may leave a review.
Mac Molina (verified owner) –
Not a page turner but if you stick with it, it reveals something revolutionary: a new theory regarding financial speculation. The proof will be in the pudding: will markets 2020-21 have a great crash as predicted by the Wave Principle?
Sara King (verified owner) –
Great.
Every trader should read this, specially if they use Elliott Wave in their trading.
Arjun Ayala (verified owner) –
Very interesting ideas about how financial markets work (as opposed to traditional economic markets). It is a life time effort to push frontier of knowledge further which I encourage to read each of its 600 pages (is taking me some time..)
Jade Beil (verified owner) –
I’ve read 200 pages and I’m completely enthralled.
It’s at such a depth it’s amazing.
World altering.
Must read
Alaiya Ruiz (verified owner) –
This book is up there with with 2 or 3 others which significantly changed how of I think of our world in general and financial markets in particular. I would welcome a second edition which weeds out much of the last third of the book, which is not written by Prechter himself and which lacks the readability and storytelling quality level of the first two thirds of the book.
Dallas Dawson (verified owner) –
I was wrong when I presumed that reading this book is hard work; the title suggests that it could be a serious academic writing. What I discovered was the exact opposite – the book is both entertaining and fun to read. After reading the first page, I could not put the book down. The author has a very engaging writing style, using an easy-to-understand English, backed by a deep understanding of his subject matter. It is a thoroughly enjoyable reading experience; it offers a very fascinating journey into a brand new field of science. On completing the reading, you will feel both enlightened and amused. Well worth taking your journey into this masterpiece…written by one of the intellectual giants of this century who has established himself as great thinker on analysing the underlying driver that shape stock market, human psychology and civilisation as a whole.
Estrella McDowell (verified owner) –
Groundbreaking!
Julian Castro (verified owner) –
Great book and I agree with all theoretical conclusions. Experience simply shows there must be something else driving markets but news. I would only add that Prechter – unfortunately- has been too pessimistic on the markets generally (occasionally he has been right obviously and he did forecast the beginning of the bull market in the 1980s). There are other Elliott Wave practitioners who have had a more balanced and correct view on the markets In the recent past and are actually more optimistic about the next few years. This is an obvious difficulty of applying EW: The interpretation is quite subjective and opinions differ like for other forms of stock market analysis. At least though, it should tell you early enough when your view is wrong or right if you follow the rules and guidelines correctly.
Khalid Powell (verified owner) –
Bob Prechter has been wrong for years. I like his writing and he’s interesting but if you can’t predict the timing, you can’t profitably invest or speculate. Elliott Wave is nonsense. Doesn’t work.
Archer Mejia (verified owner) –
I read this book cover to cover. It is as close to a scientific discussion of a non-scientific subject as one could hope for.
Karina West (verified owner) –
This book is brilliant. It’s must reading for any one who is a serious student of the market and economics. Robert glides you through topics in an easy and delightful way. We wouldn’t be surprised it this book becomes a text book for a master’s program. We take our hats off to him. It’s a classic and it’s fascinating.
Nayeli Farley (verified owner) –
The interaction of collective social psychological moods with Elliott wave functions, is, in my mind brilliant and unprecedented. As a psychologist interested in collective behavior, I find the socionomic theory of finance is as indispensable an element in understanding market behavior as any I have ever read.—Jerry Kroth, Ph.D., Associate Professor Emeritus, Graduate Division Counseling Psychology, Santa Clara University
Lachlan Cross (verified owner) –
am delighted with the book. Chapter one could be a chronicle of my own early love/hate reaction to a daily dose of the Wall Street Journal front page for over twenty years. What saved me was my earlier training as a professional magician, else I would not have seen through the ruse being perpetuated by the “journalists” who wrote the headline stock market articles. Alas, I was not clever enough to develop an acceptable substitute as has Prechter.
I am also struck by his methodical approach to each topic and his careful practice of giving exact definitions to key terms. I fully expect to encounter new insights with each chapter of this exceptional book.
Blair Acosta (verified owner) –
For decades Bob Prechter has been at the forefront of social economic research and of the influence trends in society have had upon not only financial markets but also politics and the economy. His theories contradict the widely accepted belief stock market movement alone anticipates the direction of the economy and society. His new book advances his theory regarding the interrelationship between crowd psychology and market price behavior. He dispels the notion markets behave randomly and cannot be quantified. It is a must read for market timers and fundamentalists as well those who want to understand and appreciate how social mood affects all aspects of life– political, economic, and social. Bob dispels the notion market movement and life are random.
Keira Patterson (verified owner) –
Robert Prechter and his associate authors with empirical evidence wipe away the notion that the stock market is priced rationally. Prechter doesn’t see the pricing of stocks from the same perspective as an economist who might attribute the pricing of products and services to supply and demand. He doesn’t consider the news to be a primary explanation for any lasting destabilization of stock market equilibrium.
As an author myself of a stock market technical analysis book and a retired host of a TV financial news program, I can testify that with little success I fought the desire of news writers and producers to explain all stock market movements through matters appearing in the news.
Instead Prechter argues that stock market prices are primarily determined by social mood that results in a herding effect, and that the continuations or turns in mood and prices can best be predicted through the analysis of Elliott waves. I have found this often to be the case. I highly recommend this book.
Graysen Flowers (verified owner) –
Bob begins his fascinating tome by sequentially debunking in graphical detail virtually everything you have been taught was a rationale for the seemingly erratic behavior of markets. From there he moves to the crux of his theory of market movement, namely that there are substantive rules of market behavior that are based on internal market dynamics.
Make no mistake. This is not a simple book, but the intriguing aspect of it is that there is a simplicity and straightforwardness in Bob’s description of his theory of socionomics as related to finance that should appeal to those who have been struggling to understand financial markets.
Those who like to chew their food well before swallowing will be well rewarded by the thoroughness of Prechter’s explications. For those who wish to move at a more rapid pace to the gist of socionomics as related to finance, Bob has accommodated you by suggesting a selection of particular chapters. In either case, you will be well rewarded. It is not an exaggeration to speculate that Bob’s book will be judged historically as a revelation in regard to financial markets.
Amir Frost (verified owner) –
I have been trading the markets and publishing my market forecasts for over 4 decades as has Bob Prechter. I enjoy every issue of his Elliott Wave. It is truly original thinking, and usually contrarian, which is the only way to make money over the long-term. Bob and his excellent people have proven that it is possible “to time the markets,” something Wall Streets tell investors is not possible. But that is just an excuse because they can’t or won’t. At a market top, WS can’t say ‘sell” as it interferes with their own selling. They need buyers at tops. Great book, with proofs of their theories.
Ariel Castaneda (verified owner) –
Copernicus changed everything by placing the Sun and not the Earth at the center of our solar system. Prechter has accomplished an equally massive game-changing shift in perspective for financial markets, the economy and even broader social causality. In this book you will discover how changes in financial markets are the result of internally driven social moods rather than rational reactions to external events such as terrorist attacks, regional wars, oil shortages and so forth. Prechter argues that social moods are regulated by unconscious coordination among limbic systems, which are evolutionarily detached enough from the brain’s higher rational processes as to be able to create, as scientist Paul MacLean put it, “intense free-floating feelings of what is real, true, or important” (MacLean, 1975, p.218) regardless of external reality. Prechter offers substantial evidence that mood-sharing and the impulsive herding that results from it are a primary cause of humans’ social decisions and actions. In short, they explain the social past and shape the social future.
Veronica Crosby (verified owner) –
THE SOCIONOMIC THEORY OF FINANCE blends sociology, economics and finance from a unique perspective. At the outset, Prechter and contributing authors demonstrate that exogenous causes, such as oil prices, trade balances, employment trends, and central bank policies “have no reliable effect on financial market prices.”
The book then turns to detailing Prechter’s “socionomic hypothesis,” which is that “endogenous waves of social mood, impelled by unconscious herding impulses…determine the tenor and character of social attitudes and actions in contexts of uncertainty,” such as in fads, fashions and financial markets. This approach allows a measure of prediction on the basis that social mood fluctuates in fractal waves, and knowledge of them allows one “to achieve some measure of success in forecasting the direction, extremity, and character of financial, social, political, cultural and economic trends.” Several chapters contrast real-time fractal forecasting to standard supply-demand forecasting and linear extrapolation. Neoclassical economics has never come close to matching socionomics’ real-world consistency. While this is a pricey book, it is worth every bit of time, energy, and money devoted to understanding this new field.
Highly recommended to anyone trying to make sense of the financial and social world.
Jensen Dyer (verified owner) –
I BEYOND HIGHLY RECOMEND Bob Prechter’s new book “The Socionomic Theory of Finance,” and believe it is a MUST READ for anyone who wants to truly have their eyes opened as to how the market really works.
Bob does a masterful job in the first two chapters of completely debunking the entire exogenous causation theory of market analysis. These first two chapters alone are worth the cost of the book, in my humble opinion.
I look forward to the day when analysts realize the folly in the Newtonian-based analysis primarily utilized today, and recognize this work as a truly groundbreaking masterpiece which will take market analysis into the future. Again, this is a must read for anyone that is serious about understanding how our non-linear financial markets really works.
I personally owe a tremendous debt of gratitude to Bob Prechter for opening my mind and my eyes as to the true realities of market dynamics.
Osiris Meyer (verified owner) –
All ok
Eloise Andrews (verified owner) –
The book explains everything in modern finance and economic issues, Read the book and forget about any MBA degree which just wastes you money and time
Vivian Huber (verified owner) –
Awesome! I am only 3/4 way through this epic journey from the pen of Robert Prechter but it already ranks as one of the all time non fiction books on my reading list of some 55 years.
Ariya Hunter (verified owner) –
Concept is appealing but narrative is repetitive, often rambling and in some cases almost unreadable, I found myself skipping pages, hoping the chapter would end and watching the % bar. He has a message but delivery is questionable.
Alexandria Espinoza (verified owner) –
Interesting perspective. The author is selling a service but but has some unique ideas that an investor should consider.
Paula Goodman (verified owner) –
Wonderful book, for both the layperson and the professional. It’s an epic tome, but is broken up into easily digestible parts. You don’t have to read in order either (though I did). Socionomics and the Elliot Wave Theory have real value to add to the uncertainty of the world. Once you wrap your head around it, it makes perfect sense. It’s the same concept that can transform your day to day life, applied to finance: I create my reality and my world experience (whether consciously or not), just as cultures and society create the social mood which then sets the tone for the stock market (and many other things that trend in waves). Get the cause right, and everything flows from there…
Livia Ali (verified owner) –
If you are interested in an effective alternative to the economist’s typical “hindcasting”, this book is a must read. You need to readjust your thinking about causation of events and market actions, but over time (I have been using this method for over 30 years) you will become convinced that this is a superior method of social and market forecasting to traditional econometric models and daily “news” explanations.
Saylor Delarosa (verified owner) –
The Socionomic Theory of Finance is the most fascinating book I have ever read. It gives answers to almost every questions I had concerning financial market and most importantly it makes sense. Prechter shoots down the mainstream theories of finance and has included plenty of evidence to support his point.
I think that the gore points of STF is to separate economics and finance as well as the psychology and human behavior behind those two.
This bring to my mind metaphor from ancient times with geocentric world view, where the proponents build complicated mechanical hassles to prove their point and at the same time imprisoned or at least expelled those from community, who saw the beauty and simplicity of heliocentrism.
STF is the new way of seeing the financial markets, that few see and those who should, ignore, fearing expulsion from their tribe.