Timing the Market: How To Profit in the Stock Market Using the Yield Curve, Technical Analysis, and Cultural Indicators
$19.75
| Author(s) | |
|---|---|
| Pages |
427 |
| Format |
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| Published Date |
2006 |
Timing the Market is for investors who want to increase their returns and reduce their stress while making profits in the stock market. The best way to profit in the stock market is to identify its absolute tops and bottoms and then have the courage to trade them. Timing the Market shows you how to come very close to accomplishing that goal.
Introduction:
Private investors with very little time to devote to their portfolios will find that this guide simplifies their lives. Active traders with more time to devote to their investments can apply leverage to the concepts in this book. Professional investors can use the principles in the following pages to cut through their information overload and identify the most important issues.
Timing the Market addresses all investors’ needs by starting with the broadest, most critical issues and systematically working down to individual security selection. If you do not have a large computer filled with scrubbed data and an experienced staff of Ph.D.’s, or if you do but would like to speak intelligently in their absence, you will depend on this book. Many of the graphs in Timing the Market display two centuries of economic, social, and stock market data, some of which is reprinted in the appendixes together with web sites for the source material.
This compilation of Wall Street practices has never been written before. Professional money managers and street-smart investors around the world pass this intelligence along an underground network of friends, families, and clients. Their insights are too valuable to be handed down like tribal war stories around a campfire; someone had to write them down in an organized manner with illustrations and anecdotes.
Contents:
- Yield Curve Analysis
- Technical Analysis
- Cultural Indicators
- Choosing Investments
- Capitalism at Work
Timing the Market By Deborah Weir pdf
16 reviews for Timing the Market: How To Profit in the Stock Market Using the Yield Curve, Technical Analysis, and Cultural Indicators
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Wallace Bowers (verified owner) –
Having read many many trading books, it is infrequently that I come across one that is not full of the same old repetitive waffle. This is such a book. Slightly costly, but really good. I have found many a gem in it’s pages and I am glad I bought it.
Joey Henson (verified owner) –
Gives in-depth analysis with examples from 1940 US markets to early 2001 . Written in simple understandable language . Paper quality is excellent , shines a bit in artificial light but no issues. Overall reading experience is awsome. Worth buying for every investor and trader.
Clementine Mason (verified owner) –
I find this book very useful, as it gives you a clear and complete vision of the investment universe avalaible to anyone. Deborah explains her investment criteria in real market situations with the social, historical and economic details of every period. A very good point is that she provides tips on where to find the actual data she is using. It’s written at basic level, combining fundamental (through the yield curve) and technical analysis with some cultural indicators. The first one is the backbone of the book. In short, I enjoyed it and it’s global and practical approach.
Shane Villa (verified owner) –
With the ease and clarity of a teacher, Deborah Weir expertly fuses three critical elements investors must use in making more informed buy and sell decisions. By incorporating her insights on market sentiment, the yield curve and cultural indicators, one will strengthen his and/or her future portfolio changes. The ability to be flexible in adding these disciplines will make the difference in your performance. And this book will help make that difference.
Yousef Massey (verified owner) –
I approached this book with an inclination to like it. I’m a firm believer in market timing, and I jumped at the chance to learn some new ideas about using the fixed-income markets to time the stock market. I have to say, though, that I came away from Timing the Market frustrated and disappointed. Here’s why.
Throughout the book, there is a chart detailing various buys and sells that one supposedly could have made using the author’s timing system. However, rather than deriving these buy and sell points systematically, the author seems to choose buy and sell points that would have worked best in retrospect without regard for whether or not they fit into a coherent, replicable system.
For example, in chapter 7 the author adds buy points to her chart right after the waterfall declines in October 1987, September 1998 and September 2001. What is the rule that guides these choices? Apparently, it is that the Fed lowered the fed funds rate at least one-half of one percent after a crash of some kind. This rule is apparently a sufficient but not a necessary condition of buying because numerous other buy points on her chart don’t involve this rule at all. So IF you hadn’t already committed funds because of other rules, you MIGHT have been able to buy then.
Later in the book, on the basis of a breadth-based rule about the Dow 30, the author erases the September 2001 buy signal and records a buy signal for her system on July 19, 2002, near the ultimate bottom of the bear market. This is based on the fact that all 30 Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks declined on the same day. I see IN RETROSPECT why she did this, but how would you have known in September 2001 to wait for the later buy signal? The author does not address these kinds of questions at all, as far as I can tell. As I said, frustrating and disappointing.
There may be value in Ms. Weir’s concepts, but she has far to go if her aim is to develop a rigorous market timing system, in my opinion.
Aubree Ball (verified owner) –
This one’s so interesting it’s a bit scary goes to show you how much study has been done to control the heard, charts on death rates and the economy, birth rates, divorces on and on even how we like women to look during good times and bad.Nothing here on short term trading but the guys your trading against know what color your toothbrush is.And they do want your your childs college money just in case you don’t really realize that yet.To be honest I haven’t finished this yet but I did skim through it It’s a long read ….Good book for presidential cycle holds.Debra is simply amazing what she must know
Brandon Glover (verified owner) –
If your primary investment goal is to invest for the longterm, but you would like to obtain far better results than the outdated and limiting ‘Buy & Hold’ strategy suggested by brokerage firms, then this is a book you should include in your library. While I feel some chapters could have easily been left out (the whole section on Cultural Indicators) Weir nevertheless offers some excellent information and proofs on various market-timing strategies. Frankly, the first section of the book offers the best explanation of the Yield Curve that I have found. Whether you include the yield curve methodology in your own investment strategy or not, it would be worth your while to understand its ability to predict market turns.
This book and Leslie Masonson’s “All ABout Market Timing” are two of the better market-timing books that you should incorporate into your efforts to learn how to increase the returns on your investments through better market timing.
Kason Reyna (verified owner) –
Deborah Weir’s book leads a wary, first time investor through the mysteries of business in a lucid, very helpful way. Finance can be a daunting subject for many of us, but she clears the cobwebs, and for that I am grateful. In this complicated world “Timing the Market is timely indeed. Tina Bishop, mystery author
Rocco Jarvis (verified owner) –
Item was good!!
Alessia McKay (verified owner) –
I’m on my second reading and taking notes. This is the book you want if your interested in which market to be invested in and when. Inside information about the way fund managers think and act. Knowing when to be in stocks, bonds or gold is the most important information one can have when putting your money on the line….Deborah Weir’s book,Timing the Market: How To Profit in the Stock Market Using the Yield Curve, Technical Analysis, and Cultural Indicators, does just that. My advice after being in the financial markets for over 45 years is…don’t invest without this knowledge.
Kinslee Gould (verified owner) –
I strongly recommend this book for every investor. It covers all the major market timing techniques and does a great job in explaining them. The book is comprehensive, well organized, and well explained. There is only one chapter that I really hated –chapter 16 which talks about the relation between trends in woman beauty and the market. This chapter should just be removed from the book; luckily it is only 10 pages long!
Elisa Logan (verified owner) –
I really like the book but after reading it you feel as you don’t know what to do right away on the markets: no strict emphasis on practical trading.
A must buy, waiting for a new hands-on title by Mrs D. Weir, check her great listmania
Luella Fuller (verified owner) –
I’ve read better.
Leona Santiago (verified owner) –
This may be an older book but it is very readable and offer clear explanation of the key knowledge for starting technical trading. 1/10 th macro econ primer, 1/10th history prospective, and 80% useful guides as you start to developed your trading strategy.
Beckham Nielsen (verified owner) –
I purchased this book to learn about yield curve inversions and how to use that information in making decisions on when to exit the stock market. The book meets those two goals and provides a real basis on how to improve market returns by avoiding potentially large losses. The price of the book is a little high. The section on cultural factors such as hemlines and bust sizes did not match well with the main theme of the book. Is it worth $35 to improve stock market returns by a few percent? Duh. Yeah.
Blaine Crawford (verified owner) –
This work provides an excellent, professional grounding for one’s approach to the markets. The theoretical basis for this foundation is ongoing analysis and interpretation of the U. S. treasury yield curve, bond quality spreads, and movements of the federal funds rate. The author’s exposition of the yield curve is the best I’ve seen. She divides her analysis of the yield curve into short-term money market segments, the traditional spread between ten year bonds and three month bills, and longer-term bonds. Each of these segments affords the analyst important information as to the the present and anticipated state of the economy — which determines the earnings expectations that drive markets.
The second section of this book affords a somewhat different take on technical analysis than is usually encountered. The author explains how to use the volatility index (VIX) and the put/call ratio as indications of short-to-intermediate term market turning points. She also indicates how margin debt and short interest levels can be used to reveal long-term market highs and lows.
The third section of the book describes cultural and demographic methods for gauging the market climate. These methods are qualitative only; subject to interpretational error; and questionable in the separation of “fact” from one’s psychological projection. However, used strictly as adjuncts to yield curve analysis and technical indicator confirmation, they can be quite useful as further confirming tools.
The fourth section describes how to use market timing in a profitable, top-down approach to riding the business cycle through rotation from fixed-income investments into equities, then hard assets, foreign currencies, and back into fixed-income instruments. The author details how intelligent asset rotation leads to more favorable portfolio results than does buy-and-hold over the long run.
The market timing model which the author evolves over the course of the book substantially beats a buy-and-hold portfolio and does so while experiencing less volatility. The timing model’s rationality, operations, and results are clearly explained and documented to facilitate a comprehensive understanding of her approach.
This book is well-written. Its thesis is logical; well-developed; and supported with numerous examples, data, and around sixty pages of appendices. I feel that its methodology will help investors understand and identify forces which move markets as well as avoid those traps of crowd psychology which lead to participation in mass buying at market tops and mass selling at bottoms. This work is an interesting, original contribution to the literature of markets!