The Triumph of Contrarian Investing : Crowds, Manias, and Beating the Market by Going Against the Grain
$19.25
| Author(s) | |
|---|---|
| Pages |
192 |
| Format |
|
| Published Date |
2004 |
The Triumph of Contrarian Investing is a fascinating, in depth examination of the impact of crowd psychology on markets, how the crowd is often predictably incorrect, and how investors can use long-proven contrarian investing strategies to uncover tremendous buying and selling opportunities.
Introduction:
Economic factors, particularly monetary variables and interest rates, certainly influence the long-term values of common stocks, but it is Investor Expectations that exert the most dynamic impact on stock prices. If one were both able to measure the magnitude of Investor Expectations and to properly interpret them, major stock market movements could be anticipated within a rea-sonable degree of error.
Investor Expectations are simply the collective opinions of various groups of stock market participants . . . either investors or speculators. For convenience, such opinions may be expressed in terms of their relative degree of optimism or pessimism. Normally, it is optimal to segregate the marketplace into reasonably homogeneous groups of investors in order to obtain measurements of various types of sentiment. Such groupings, for example, might include odd-lot investors, short sellers, exchange members, mutual fund investors, foreign investors, etc. By obtaining many such samples of investor attitudes, one can decrease the probability of deriving a misleading reading of market expectations in the aggregate.
In addition, it has been found that the expectations of some investor groupings are more reliable than those of others, and that the expectations of some groups are meaningful only under specified market conditions. Thus, as Investor Expectations are broken down into greater numbers of subclassifications, their predictive capacity is enhanced, as is the opportunity to corroborate one reading with another.
Contents:
- Scientific Studies on Crowd Psychology
- Brief History of Manias and Panics
- Headlines and Cover Stories
- Indicators of Crowd Psychology
- Postscript
The Triumph of Contrarian Investing : Crowds, Manias, and Beating the Market by Going Against the Grain By Ned Davis pdf
6 reviews for The Triumph of Contrarian Investing : Crowds, Manias, and Beating the Market by Going Against the Grain
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Valentina Wilkinson (verified owner) –
utter nonsense book…really disappointed….have no meaning…waste of time and money
Jonah Pena (verified owner) –
This book did not contain much information, only 70 pages of text. The rest of the book being made up of a series of graphs.
The author frequently referred in the book to subscription research services he offers, as if the book was an advert.
I was disappointed with this book.
Gracie Madden (verified owner) –
I have respect for Ned Davis as an analyst and this led to me buying his book.What a disappointment.Only 70 pages and the rest meaningless page after page of charts.I believe it is misleading to advertise a book of 188 pages and then only have 70 pages of content!! Buyer beware
Everest Reed (verified owner) –
Found the triumph of contrarian investing very interesting with a lot of charts explaining the trends of crowds
Rachel Clay (verified owner) –
First let me say, Ned Davis Research does excellent work. I was hoping to get some insight into the types of research his company uses. But I’m sorry to say I can not recomend this book to anyone but those completely unfamiliar with sentiment analysis. Only the basics are covered. Over half of the book is stock charts showing fundamental variables (I thought this was about sentiment?) and is a waste of space. He does say he is using these variables as a measure of investor sentiment but maybe they could have used a handful of charts as examples, not over half a book that is only 170 pages long.
Yosef Knight (verified owner) –
I read this book and loved it. All of the other review/criticism seem to focus on the fact that it is too simplistic or too short. If you know that going in then you won’t be disappointing like they were.
The charts are good resources. The 70 pages of charts illustrate one company stock chart per page. They give measure of price/dividend or price/sales ratios that indicate overly fearful and overly confident ranges. To this day, even though they are outdated, I refer to those ratios and ranges if I am doing due diligence on one of the stocks he has charted.
I loaded up on Budweiser in 2005-06, in part because of their overly fearful positioning (and of course dividend and positive attributes not included in this book). That trade was hugely successful for me and these charts and range analysis added to my confidence level. If NDR wrote an updated version of this with those companies and more, and their stock charts and overlyfearful/overly confident guages, I would buy the book just as a resource. It only takes one trade, one good call to have resources MORE THAN pay themselves. I keep this one reaching distance from my desk along with about 2 dozen others I consider worthwhile. Now that it is old I would really give it a 4 star rating, but I wanted to weight the average up because I thought all the one star ratings were incredibly extreme.
Buy it used or check it out from your local library, but don’t let those negative reviews deprive you of seeing what nuggets you might find.