Socionomic Causality in Politics: How Social Mood Influences Everything from Elections to Geopolitics
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Socionomic Causality in Politics examines political behaviour through the socionomic proposition that collective social mood influences elections, leadership approval, cooperation and conflict. Edited by Robert R. Prechter, this collection brings together research papers, historical studies and commentary exploring relationships between financial-market trends and political developments.
The contributors use aggregate stock prices primarily as indicators of social mood. Their framework proposes that market transactions express mood relatively quickly, while elections, legislation and geopolitical actions may reflect the same underlying mood with a delay. The opening section develops this argument through research on U.S. presidential elections and examples from other political systems.
Eight thematic and regional sections address election outcomes, political causality, authoritarianism, Europe, Russia, the Middle East and Africa, the Far East, and changing social policies. Topics range from leadership turnover and public protests to European integration, international conflict, drug prohibition and public apologies. The material combines statistical investigation with interpretive case studies.
The book is a study of political and social causality rather than a trading-system manual. Its foreword explicitly identifies stock-market histories as tools for examining socionomics, with Elliott wave analysis playing an incidental role. First published in 2017, the supplied copy records a second printing in 2018. Its historical arguments provide material for evaluating the theory, without establishing that social mood alone explains political outcomes or permits reliable prediction of specific events.
✅ What You’ll Learn
- Explain the socionomic hypothesis linking collective mood with political behaviour.
- Examine how stock indexes are used as proxies for social mood.
- Assess the reported relationship between prior market performance and incumbent election outcomes.
- Distinguish shared-cause explanations from claims that politics directly drives financial markets.
- Compare case studies of leadership approval, political turnover and public protest.
- Explore the authors’ interpretations of cooperation, polarisation and authoritarianism.
- Evaluate regional applications involving Europe, Russia, Asia, the Middle East and Africa.
- Distinguish broad social-trend hypotheses from predictions of specific political events.
💡 Key Benefits
- A focused application of socionomics: Extends the theory into elections, public policy and international relations.
- Broad comparative coverage: Examines multiple countries, political systems and historical periods.
- Different forms of evidence: Combines statistical studies, charts, historical comparisons and contemporaneous commentary.
- More explicit causal questions: Encourages scrutiny of familiar explanations connecting politics, markets and public sentiment.
- Context for further research: Presents hypotheses and examples that readers can compare with competing interpretations.
👤 Who This Book Is For
- Intermediate and advanced students of socionomics studying the theory’s political applications.
- Market and geopolitical researchers examining relationships between sentiment, financial markets and political developments.
- Readers of behavioural finance and political psychology interested in collective mood and group behaviour.
- Experienced investors and analysts seeking a broader perspective on political narratives and social trends.
📚 Table of Contents
- Social Mood and Election Outcomes
- Fundamental Observations of Political Causality
- Social Mood and Authoritarianism
- Europe
- Russia
- Middle East and Africa
- Far East
- Pot, Pottery, Punishment and ‘Pologies
Socionomic Causality in Politics: How Social Mood Influences Everything from Elections to Geopolitics By Robert R. Prechter
| Author(s) | |
|---|---|
| Product Type | Ebook |
| Format | |
| Skill Level | Intermediate to Advanced |
| Pages | 360 |
| Publication Year | 2017 |
| Delivery | Instant Download |
5 reviews for Socionomic Causality in Politics: How Social Mood Influences Everything from Elections to Geopolitics
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Lacey Whitehead (verified owner) –
I read this book and it offered intriguing insights for anyone not familiar with the science. A book of original ideas and explorations with lots of clarity in regards to thinking and theory. Book helps to make you measure your own theories as to what might be lurking around the corner in political events – in yet to be written pages. It is not only a cerebral read with fun and exciting vernacular, but is a visual journey with lots of charts which bring clarity to correlating text.This book is easy to read and mind-expanding in regards to sociology and economics; social mood and social events. Never a dull moment with the book. Food for thought on every page. Highly recommend for all people!
Houston Hobbs (verified owner) –
This is certainly the most iconoclastic work on the subject of politics since Machiavelli’s The Prince. Like Marx said of Hegel, Robert Prechter can say, “I found political causality standing on its head, so I placed it on its feet.”
Even the word, “Socionomics”, elicits a misspelling underline on my word processor. To put it briefly, the central concept of the theory is that events do not determine moods; instead, shared social mood determines events. This mood is unconscious and pervasive. Like the lower life forms act collectively as hives, herds and packs, so do humans. This idea is presented and developed in a companion books recently out: Socionomic Studies of Society and Culture (also reviewed by this writer.)
The book is actually a collection of eighty essays on the topic. They were written by seven members of the Socionomics Institute founation and edited by the founder, Robert R. Prechter.
The subject of politics is fascinating, especially when properly understood from the socionomic point of view. The topics range all over the globe, covering current and recent history in the U.S., Russia, Europe, Asia, Australia, the Middle East, Africa, and the far East. The issues range from voter behavior to how to become a revered historical figure.
If you have never liked the subject of politics, this book could change your mind. If you think of yourself as a political wonk, then you really should look into the contents and spare yourself further embarrassment from faulty thinking.
No matter what your personal politics, these essays contain more truth than any dozen learned books on the topic. As a former elected local government official myself, I can say that this book really cuts through the usual c*** to give you the real reasons that determine elections and policy positions world-wide. Most of all, I think you will really enjoy reading the diverse essays that fill out this excellent collection.
Dean Wade (verified owner) –
As a neuroscience, I was astonished at the parallels between Robert Prechter’s Socionomic Causality in Politics, and his Socionomic Studies of Society and Culture and what I have learned about the brain over the last three decades. All I can say is, WOW!
Here are three strong reasons this book should be read by anyone with an interest in the social sciences, and particularly what these sciences can become:
Number 1: The brain and Socionomics. The brain’s small cerebellum contains 69 billion neurons compared to a mere 16 billion in the entire rest of the brain. My recent brain research has shown how the 69 billion neurons of the cerebellum essentially tells us what to do in novel and uncharted situations, and how they influence ourselves and others below the level of our conscious awareness.
Number 2: Mood and Social Events. This massive unconscious brain sensitivity of the cerebellum constantly monitors social interactions of our neighbors, friends, associates, television news commenters and so forth. In times of uncertainty (which, over the last million years, the human social cerebellum evolved to detect) literally runs the moods of society in unconsciously shared patterns and thus causes social events to occur which deal with any uncertainty at hand, including that of the markets.
Yes, It’s Fractal
Number 3: Fractals. I have argued that one of key beauties of the cerebellum is that it predicts social events (and all other events) using fractal prediction trajectories. These fractal trajectories can be used by the conscious rational portion of the brain (the mere 16 billion neurons) to both predict and anticipate (get ready for) what is about to occur. Thus, cerebellum research provides solid support for the extraordinarily diverse selection of chapters found in both Socionomic Causality in Politics, and Socionomic Studies of Society and Culture.
Strong Recommendation
In addition to those with an interest in the social sciences, I strongly recommend that both of these books be used by colleges and universities in all courses related to the social sciences. This would help students understand (1) the sources of the fractal dynamics of society (which is actually the basis of social movements, see Vandervert, in-press) and (2) the psychology of their own socionomically-driven minds. The many powerful chapters of the two books will provide students with highly memorable guideposts in this more recently understood and critically important process.
Zayd Welch (verified owner) –
Great insight
Evie Snow (verified owner) –
I like the subject very much and it is fun to read. Sometimes confusing and repetitive but that may be me. Since I am also a follower of the Elliott Wave Principle the information contained in this book was familiar. If you are an investor the information can be used although it takes an open mind. The main subject of mood and it’s correlation with the stock market is easy to understand and in most cases see. The subject is very apropos for this time in history.