In today’s volatile markets, speculators naturally focus on very short-term market movements. However, they forget that what happens in the present is directly related to a bigger picture that deserves more attention. Such a situation now exists in the treasury bond market. It has apparently been next to impossible to decipher the intentions of the Fed and even more difﬁcult to interpret the signiﬁcance of the plethora of economic data which bombard the market day by day.
Yet the technical picture, in terms of both patterns and cycles, is one that has exhibited exemplary clarity since the beginning of this decade. The cyclic proﬁle has been exceptional at both extremes, i.e. tops and bottoms. Every three years, bonds have roughed and crested right on schedule because of two separate three-year cycles that have alternately punctuated both major highs and lows as regularly and accurately as the movement of a pendulum.
Continue reading Treasury Bonds a Longer Term Perspective By Robert R. Lussier
In chapter three of W.D. Gann’s book, “How to Make Proﬁts in Commodities,” Gann states, “Time is the most important factor of all and not until sufficient time has expired does any big move start up or down. Time must be allowed for accumulation or distribution before the trend can change.”
Once you are aware of when these natural timing points occur, the next step is to watch for the G-A-N-N2 Buy/Sell price pattern to form. This pattern allows plenty of time (3-4 weeks) to visually see accumulation or distribution to take place.
Continue reading The Gann Wheel on May 1989 Coffee By Jim Purucker and Pat Reda
Trading stocks and commodities has become a very exciting yet volatile business. Professional traders around the world have searched out a variety of trading systems in the hopes of gaining a decisive edge in their hard won trading abilities. Over the past few decades a number of systems have survived this inexhaustible search for the ﬁnancial holy grail. Many professionals have found it necessary to combine two or more trading systems to compensate for the inherent weakness in a single system approach (and I count myself among them). Continue reading New Concepts In Multi-dimensional Trading Systems By Marcus S. Robinson
In the never ending quest to predict C the never ending quest to the futures markets (or the future for that matter) I have found that price/time series analysis; or the study of rhythmic behavior (both in nature and financial markets) is the key to unlimited profit potential in futures trading.
My interest in cycles was born out of my interest in commodity futures. Recurring cycles in commodities as well as in other areas have always fascinated me. I was curious as to why they recured with such predictive regularity. It was my intense curiosity and interest in why things in nature (or for that matter, the entire universe) occur and recur in regular time intervals with such predictability.
Continue reading Cycles: Predicting Price & Time By Jeff Rickerson
I began studying technical analysis in the mid-1960’s, a time during which there was great excitement and interest in the stock market. In graduate school in the early 1970’s, I read all of the quantitative studies done on price movements. What caused stock prices to move?
Was it news, was it fundamental developments in the economy, was it political developments? All of these studies came up with the same result. That is, there was no statistically signiﬁcant correlation between market price movements and any of the previously-mentioned items. In fact, one of the stronger correlations, although it was not even statistically signiﬁcant, was the relationship between inﬂation-adjusted earnings and the S&P500 (the highest correlation that was found was between stock averages and the Washington Senators baseball team batting average over three consecutive years, but we all know that this was simply a random occurrence).
Continue reading The Jupiter Effect on the Stock Market By Bill Meridian
Since October 1987, numerous theories have been offered to explain the action of the stock market and subsequently predict its future course. Conﬂicting projections ranging from as low as 400 to as high as 6000+ Dow, serve to confuse the public and often alienate them from stock market investing. The resultant quandary can be alleviated by ﬁrst categorizing and then validating each theory according to the rules on which it is based. Ironically, the rules claimed as the foundation for each are identical and are clearly presented in a single text, The Elliott Wave Principle.
Reinforcing these rules with the use of common sense, I intend to dispel the notion that the Elliott Wave theory is highly esoteric realm of technical analysis and to encourage even the most basic technician to explore its potential.
Continue reading Achieving the Ultimate High By Eric S. Hadik
For the past twelve years I have Si the past twelve years I been researching the correlation between the price of silver and the geometric relationships of the planets. My research has proven to me that at least 80 percent of the bull and bear markets can be predicted by astronomical patterns. One of the fascinating things I’ve discovered about the movement of the planets is their perfection to mathematical order. My type of astrological based market analysis is more complex than most astrology-based systems for I incorporate certain mathematical principles with planetary relationships, speciﬁcally the Golden Mean Ratio.
The Golden Mean Ratio or Phi (1.618 or .618) is a mathematical ratio found throughout nature, and is used by many market technicians in their predictions for future market behavior. Continue reading Silver Astrology and the Golden Mean Ratio By James W. Brock
Complementary technical tools are an important adjunct to the primary Elliott Wave analysis that is used to generate trades. This was demonstrated in our previous article on Compuwave in the August/September 1988 G&EW, where standard computer generated technical studies are used to help conﬁrm the current Elliott Wave count. Now with the development of the widely used Market Proﬁle analysis, new insights into analytical and trading techniques can be gained in conjunction with Elliott Wave analysis, to form the concept of “Market Waves”. This article will illustrate one particular application as it was used in the generation of day trades in the Bond market.
Continue reading A Glimpse Into “Market Waves” By Robert Saperstein and Thomas Gautschi
I recently spent a of long and tense hours at the hospital bedside of a close relative. I noticed that a nurse would appear in the room at regular intervals, chart in hand and instruments at the ready. Her primary duty was to measure and record the patient’s vital signs. She would rapidly check to ascertain whether the patient was still living, and if so, how well. Having noted and recorded pulse, blood pressure, respiration and temperature, she would as quickly move on to see if the patient in the next room’s signs remained vital.
In that I have yet to lose my interest in attractive nurses, and charts have long held a fascination for me, albeit my experience is more with stock charts than medical charts, I reﬂected upon this periodic hospital ritual. The nurse’s job appeared to be primarily one of recording data for the doctors who would, I hoped, turn the information into both a diagnosis and a prognosis. Their ability to look at all of the available data, combined with their skill and experience over many years, were the key to the decisions they would be called upon to make.
Continue reading Equivolume: A Different Diagnosis By Richard W. Arms, Jr.
Time is the most important factor in forecasting market movements. The future is a repetition of the past and each market movement is working out TIME in relation to some previous Time Cycle. W.D. Gann. Time is: the most important dimension in market analysis, yet it is the most ignored factor. The best most traders and analysts can come up with in timing the market is to look for so called cycles of fixed length periodicity. This is a simplistic view of market movements that does not reﬂect market activity at all. The key to market timing is found in the above statement by Gann, “Each market movement is working out TIME in relation (proportion) to some previous Time Cycle.” Gann described three primary methods to determine time periods when change could be expected in market activity.
Continue reading Projecting the Precise Time of Important Tops and Bottoms By Robert Miner